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Tag Archives: electoral college
What if the US Map was Sized by the Number of Presidential Votes in Each State
You’ve probably seen this map of the 2012 electoral college vote by State. What if the map was sized by the number of presidential votes in each State and then color coded red or blue. The map then looks like … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged cartogram, elections, electoral college, map, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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Three Respected Forecasting Model Predictions
It’s a day before the election so let’s look at three of the most respected models which predict the presidential election outcome. We’ll conclude by asking why the models might fail to accurately predict the outcome. I. Nate Silver’s Forecast … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged bias, elections, electoral college, forecast, misspecification, models, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, sampling, Votamatic, voter suppression
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Silver Prediction: Obama 300.4, Romney 237.6 Electoral Votes as of Nov.1
Update: As of November 1, Silver predicts Obama will receive 300.4 electoral votes compared to Romney’s 237.6. Recall, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged electoral college, forecast, Obama, presidency, Romney, Silver
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Some Humble Advice on Polling
I’ve been writing about polling the last few days. Here I’m offering some humble advice. Watch the state poll trends. Here’s why. National polls predict the popular vote. Important? Yes, but the popular vote doesn’t determine who the next President … Continue reading
Posted in Elections
Tagged elections, electoral college, government, national polling, polls, popular vote, prediction, state polling
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Unique Methodology Applied to the Electoral College Outcome
Study: 512 Unique Pathways Now to Win Presidency I’ve identified another electoral forecaster who uses a different and unique methodology than the better known forecasters – Nate Silver, Votamatic or Sam Wang. (See “Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions.”) Gabriel … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, odds, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Synder, Votamatic
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Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions
Nate Silver, known for accurate election forecasts, now has President Obama moving up again in the odds of winning the electoral and popular votes. Obama is predicted to receive 292.7 electoral votes to Romney’s 245.3. His chance of winning the … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Votamatic
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Nate Silver’s Oct. 23 Presidential Election Forecast
As promised, I’m posting Nate Silver’s latest forecast, Oct. 23, for the presidential election (right column) with his forecast last week, Oct. 15 (left column). The electoral college forecast looks almost unchanged, with Obama forecasted to receive 290.8 electoral votes … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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Benchmarking Nate Silver’s Electoral Prediction for Comparison Next Week
I’m putting Nate Silver’s electoral predictions up today as a benchmark to see if and how tonight’s presidential debate effects the forecast after a week. Here’s Silver’s prediction on 10-15-2012: Tune in next Tuesday to see how the debate changed … Continue reading
Nate Silver’s Presidential Election Forecast – Sept. 24
Update, September 24: Nate Silver’s Presidential Election Forecast Recall, as I have previously said, Nate Silver has had extremely accurate predictions: In the last presidential election, 2008, he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. He also accurately … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged electoral college, forecast, Obama, presidency, Romney, Silver
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Update: Nate Silver’s Electoral College and Popular Vote Predictions
On July 15th I posted Nate Silver’s prediction of the electoral college outcome for the presidential election. Here’s an update, as of August 8. He has President Obama winning, 302.3 to 235.7. Recall, 270 electoral votes are needed to win … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged election, electoral college, Obama, popular vote, prediction, Romney, Silver
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