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Tag Archives: Nate Silver
Three Respected Forecasting Model Predictions
It’s a day before the election so let’s look at three of the most respected models which predict the presidential election outcome. We’ll conclude by asking why the models might fail to accurately predict the outcome. I. Nate Silver’s Forecast … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged bias, elections, electoral college, forecast, misspecification, models, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, sampling, Votamatic, voter suppression
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Unique Methodology Applied to the Electoral College Outcome
Study: 512 Unique Pathways Now to Win Presidency I’ve identified another electoral forecaster who uses a different and unique methodology than the better known forecasters – Nate Silver, Votamatic or Sam Wang. (See “Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions.”) Gabriel … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, odds, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Synder, Votamatic
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Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions
Nate Silver, known for accurate election forecasts, now has President Obama moving up again in the odds of winning the electoral and popular votes. Obama is predicted to receive 292.7 electoral votes to Romney’s 245.3. His chance of winning the … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Votamatic
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Nate Silver’s Oct. 23 Presidential Election Forecast
As promised, I’m posting Nate Silver’s latest forecast, Oct. 23, for the presidential election (right column) with his forecast last week, Oct. 15 (left column). The electoral college forecast looks almost unchanged, with Obama forecasted to receive 290.8 electoral votes … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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Predicting the Outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election
Most of us are interested in forecasts. What will the stock market look like in 6 months? What’s the weather going to be when we go on vacation? The list goes on but one area that’s getting a lot of … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged elections, forecasts, Nate Silver, Obama, predictions, Romney, science
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