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Tag Archives: Obama
A Profile of the Birthers
What’s the profile of a typical ‘birther’ – a person who doesn’t believe President Obama was born in the USA? To answer the question I downloaded the ‘2010-12 ANES Evaluations of Government and Society Study (EGSS1)’ dataset. I specified a … Continue reading
Do State Gini Coefficients Predict Presidential Election Results in 2012
If you examine my post, Predicting Obama Victory in Each County with the Gini Coefficient, you will see a reader’s comment wondering if State Gini coefficients predict state presidential outcomes. After merging a couple files I have sufficient information to run … Continue reading
Obama Administration Created More Jobs in First Term than George W. Bush’s First Administration
The U.S. News reports the Obama Administration created more jobs in its first term than George W. Bush did in his first term.
Posted in Economy, Government, Presidential Leadership
Tagged Bush, economic growth, economy, government, jobs, Obama, presidential leadership
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Obama’s 2012 Tax Ask in Comparison to Other Alternatives
How big is President Obama’s 2012 tax ask in comparison to other alternatives. Not so big, according to this chart by Ezra Klein.
Posted in Economy, Government, Taxes
Tagged Domenici-Rivlin, economic growth, fiscal cliff, Obama, Simpson-Bowles, taxes
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Logistic Regression Demonstrates Obama Helped Carry Democratic House Members to Victory
Did President Obama help Democrats win seats in the House of Representatives? A logistic regression that I just completed indicates Obama’s victory in Congressional Districts improved the odds of a Democrat being elected to the House of Representatives by a factor … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Presidential Leadership
Tagged election, House of Representatives, incumbent, logistic regression, Obama, pvi
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Predicting Obama Victory in Each County with the Gini Coefficient
Now that the presidential election is over there’s a lot of reflection and analysis of the electoral and popular vote. Some of the presidential campaign disagreements centered around income inequality yet I fail to see any analysis of the impact … Continue reading
What if the US Map was Sized by the Number of Presidential Votes in Each State
You’ve probably seen this map of the 2012 electoral college vote by State. What if the map was sized by the number of presidential votes in each State and then color coded red or blue. The map then looks like … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged cartogram, elections, electoral college, map, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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Presidential Outcome Votes that Debunk Conventional Wisdom
Here are two voting patterns that debunk conventional wisdom. I. Obama Wins 8 of the Nation’s 10 Wealthiest Counties CNBC concludes, “President Barack Obama was favored over multimillionaire businessman Mitt Romney in eight of the nation’s 10 wealthiest counties.” Here’s a … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Socio-economic Status, Taxes, Wealth
Tagged counties, elections, Obama, Presidential election, Romney, wealth
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Thoughts on the “Big Losers” in the Presidential Election
Pundits will be examining the 2012 presidential election for years. A few quick thoughts on the big losers last night: GOP Nomination Process Current GOP Brand Carl Rove’s Big Money Strategy Saturated Advertising Prevarication Fox News Prejudice Birthers ‘Obama is a … Continue reading
Three Respected Forecasting Model Predictions
It’s a day before the election so let’s look at three of the most respected models which predict the presidential election outcome. We’ll conclude by asking why the models might fail to accurately predict the outcome. I. Nate Silver’s Forecast … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged bias, elections, electoral college, forecast, misspecification, models, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, sampling, Votamatic, voter suppression
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