Tag Archives: prediction

A Profile of the Birthers

Posted on January 31, 2013 by Michael Morrison

What’s the profile of a typical ‘birther’ – a person who doesn’t believe President Obama was born in the USA? To answer the question I downloaded the ‘2010-12 ANES Evaluations of Government and Society Study (EGSS1)’ dataset. I specified a … Continue reading →

Posted in Elections, Gender, Government, Higher Education, Secondary Education, Socio-economic Status | Tagged birthers, Democrat, education, elections, gender, government, higher education, logistic regression, Obama, party, prediction, Republican, secondary education | 2 Comments

Do Black Friday Retail Sales Predict Official Holiday Sales?

Posted on November 26, 2012 by Michael Morrison

Black Friday — the time of the year the media and the public are consumed with how many people shopped at retail stores and how much did they spend. Undoubtedly it is an important day for retail stores but how … Continue reading →

Posted in Economy | Tagged Black Friday, economy, forecast, holiday, prediction, sales | Leave a comment

County Health Outcomes are Linked to Income Inequality

Posted on November 17, 2012 by Michael Morrison

Income Inequality in U.S. Counties Linked to Adverse Health Outcomes I’m interested in determining the relationship between income inequality and health outcomes in U.S. counties. My motivation for this study comes form epidemiologists Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett’s research that … Continue reading →

Posted in Health, Income Distribution, Inequality, Socio-economic Status | Tagged counties, gini coefficient, health, income inequality, inequality, logistic regression, prediction, social ills, socio-economic status | Leave a comment

Predicting Obama Victory in Each County with the Gini Coefficient

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Michael Morrison

Now that the presidential election is over there’s a lot of reflection and analysis of the electoral and popular vote. Some of the presidential campaign disagreements centered around income inequality yet I fail to see any analysis of the impact … Continue reading →

Posted in Elections, Government, Income Distribution, Inequality, Socio-economic Status | Tagged elections, gini coefficient, income inequality, inequality, logistic regression, Obama, prediction, probability, Romney, socio-economic status | 2 Comments

Is the Stock Market an Accurate Predictor of Presidential Elections?

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Michael Morrison

The New York Times examined the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and presidential election outcomes. Their data yielded the following conclusion: “In general, voters have tended to throw out the incumbent party after four-year periods when the Dow … Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, Elections, Government | Tagged Dow Jones, elections, forecast, Obama, prediction, Presidential election, Romney | Leave a comment

Some Humble Advice on Polling

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Michael Morrison

I’ve been writing about polling the last few days. Here I’m offering some humble advice. Watch the state poll trends. Here’s why. National polls predict the popular vote. Important? Yes, but the popular vote doesn’t determine who the next President … Continue reading →

Posted in Elections | Tagged elections, electoral college, government, national polling, polls, popular vote, prediction, state polling | Leave a comment

Update: Nate Silver’s Electoral College and Popular Vote Predictions

Posted on August 9, 2012 by Michael Morrison

On July 15th I posted Nate Silver’s prediction of the electoral college outcome for the presidential election. Here’s an update, as of August 8. He has President Obama winning, 302.3 to 235.7. Recall, 270 electoral votes are needed to win … Continue reading →

Posted in Elections, Government | Tagged election, electoral college, Obama, popular vote, prediction, Romney, Silver | Leave a comment

Facebook Profile Picture Predicts Life Satisfaction

Posted on July 14, 2012 by Michael Morrison

According to a study published in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science, college freshmen whose Facebook profile pictures featured intense smiles were more likely to feel satisfied with their lives 3½ years later. “This research confirms the results of … Continue reading →

Posted in Happiness | Tagged Facebook, happiness, photo, prediction, satisfaction, smile | Leave a comment

What’s a Good Predictor of Presidential Election Outcomes?

Posted on May 18, 2012 by Michael Morrison

Interested in handicapping the next Presidential election? If so, here’s a factoid that might help: “Historically, nothing — not social issues, campaign advertisements or gaffes — has influenced voters more heavily than the direction of the economy in an election … Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, Elections, Government | Tagged prediction, Presidential election | Leave a comment

Space Shuttle Challenger: An Almost Certain Predicted Disaster

Posted on February 21, 2012 by Michael Morrison

In an amazing analysis of space shuttle data Hamilton (2009) demonstrates how the Space Shuttle Challenger accident was for all practical purposes a certain event. Hamilton uses space shuttle data to teach readers how to utilize a sophisticated statistical software … Continue reading →

Posted in Science | Tagged Challenger, logistic regression, NASA, prediction, space shuttle | Leave a comment