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Tag Archives: Presidential election
Do State Gini Coefficients Predict Presidential Election Results in 2012
If you examine my post, Predicting Obama Victory in Each County with the Gini Coefficient, you will see a reader’s comment wondering if State Gini coefficients predict state presidential outcomes. After merging a couple files I have sufficient information to run … Continue reading
What if the US Map was Sized by the Number of Presidential Votes in Each State
You’ve probably seen this map of the 2012 electoral college vote by State. What if the map was sized by the number of presidential votes in each State and then color coded red or blue. The map then looks like … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged cartogram, elections, electoral college, map, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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Presidential Outcome Votes that Debunk Conventional Wisdom
Here are two voting patterns that debunk conventional wisdom. I. Obama Wins 8 of the Nation’s 10 Wealthiest Counties CNBC concludes, “President Barack Obama was favored over multimillionaire businessman Mitt Romney in eight of the nation’s 10 wealthiest counties.” Here’s a … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Socio-economic Status, Taxes, Wealth
Tagged counties, elections, Obama, Presidential election, Romney, wealth
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Three Respected Forecasting Model Predictions
It’s a day before the election so let’s look at three of the most respected models which predict the presidential election outcome. We’ll conclude by asking why the models might fail to accurately predict the outcome. I. Nate Silver’s Forecast … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged bias, elections, electoral college, forecast, misspecification, models, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, sampling, Votamatic, voter suppression
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Is the Stock Market an Accurate Predictor of Presidential Elections?
The New York Times examined the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and presidential election outcomes. Their data yielded the following conclusion: “In general, voters have tended to throw out the incumbent party after four-year periods when the Dow … Continue reading
Posted in Economy, Elections, Government
Tagged Dow Jones, elections, forecast, Obama, prediction, Presidential election, Romney
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Unique Methodology Applied to the Electoral College Outcome
Study: 512 Unique Pathways Now to Win Presidency I’ve identified another electoral forecaster who uses a different and unique methodology than the better known forecasters – Nate Silver, Votamatic or Sam Wang. (See “Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions.”) Gabriel … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, odds, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Synder, Votamatic
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Three Highly Rated Electoral College Predictions
Nate Silver, known for accurate election forecasts, now has President Obama moving up again in the odds of winning the electoral and popular votes. Obama is predicted to receive 292.7 electoral votes to Romney’s 245.3. His chance of winning the … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney, Sam Wang, Votamatic
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Nate Silver’s Oct. 23 Presidential Election Forecast
As promised, I’m posting Nate Silver’s latest forecast, Oct. 23, for the presidential election (right column) with his forecast last week, Oct. 15 (left column). The electoral college forecast looks almost unchanged, with Obama forecasted to receive 290.8 electoral votes … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged elections, electoral college, forecast, Nate Silver, Obama, popular vote, Presidential election, Romney
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What’s a Good Predictor of Presidential Election Outcomes?
Interested in handicapping the next Presidential election? If so, here’s a factoid that might help: “Historically, nothing — not social issues, campaign advertisements or gaffes — has influenced voters more heavily than the direction of the economy in an election … Continue reading