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Tag Archives: Silver
Two Eminent Statisticians Predict Oscar Winners
Two outstanding statisticians with excellent records of predicting complex phenomena have made their Oscar winning predictions. The two statisticians are Nate Silver and Iain Pardoe. They utilize very different statistical methodologies but as you can observe their predictions are very … Continue reading
Friday’s Polling of 22 Swing States: Obama Leads in 19
“There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.” Source: Nate Silver’s 538 … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged 538, election, Obama, polls, Silver, states
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Silver Prediction: Obama 300.4, Romney 237.6 Electoral Votes as of Nov.1
Update: As of November 1, Silver predicts Obama will receive 300.4 electoral votes compared to Romney’s 237.6. Recall, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
Posted in Elections, Government, Science
Tagged electoral college, forecast, Obama, presidency, Romney, Silver
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The Anti-Science, Anti-, Fact Crowd Now Attacks Nate Silver
Well, the anti-science, anti-fact group is at it again. This time their target is Nate Silver, the turned baseball statistician/forecaster to political campaign predictor. It appears that because Silver’s data shows President Obama has a higher probability at winning the … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Science
Tagged bias, elections, forecasts, Obama, polls, predictions, probabilities, Romney, Silver
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Benchmarking Nate Silver’s Electoral Prediction for Comparison Next Week
I’m putting Nate Silver’s electoral predictions up today as a benchmark to see if and how tonight’s presidential debate effects the forecast after a week. Here’s Silver’s prediction on 10-15-2012: Tune in next Tuesday to see how the debate changed … Continue reading
The Game Changer – The 47% Tape
Nate Silver clearly depicts the adverse effect of Governor Romney’s ‘47% statement‘ on the popular vote metric. His graph also depicts a significant jump in President Obama’s popularity after the Democrat National Convention with a simultaneous drop in Governor Romney’s … Continue reading
Posted in Elections
Tagged 47 percent, elections, Obama, politics, popularity, Romney, Silver
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Nate Silver’s Presidential Election Forecast – Sept. 24
Update, September 24: Nate Silver’s Presidential Election Forecast Recall, as I have previously said, Nate Silver has had extremely accurate predictions: In the last presidential election, 2008, he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. He also accurately … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged electoral college, forecast, Obama, presidency, Romney, Silver
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Update: Nate Silver’s Electoral College and Popular Vote Predictions
On July 15th I posted Nate Silver’s prediction of the electoral college outcome for the presidential election. Here’s an update, as of August 8. He has President Obama winning, 302.3 to 235.7. Recall, 270 electoral votes are needed to win … Continue reading
Posted in Elections, Government
Tagged election, electoral college, Obama, popular vote, prediction, Romney, Silver
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